Ante-post betting picks across the leagues, with the reasoning

Choosing betting predictions calls for a reasonable, evidence-based approach. What follows is an analysis of the leagues and the arguments behind each long-term pick. A first step is choosing a bookmaker, for example via a comparison site such as onlinesportsbettingsites.co.uk.

First of all, there is no need to rush into predictions before the season starts; doing so is a common early mistake. It pays to wait until the final stretch of the competitions and, meanwhile, to study the leagues closely. The middle of March is a sensible time to place long-term bets: the wait for the outcome is only around two months, and, just as importantly, the transfer window is closed, so the strengths of each team are clear.

When picking predictions, bettors should take into account the form of the teams, injured players and the tactics being used. Another important factor is the fixture list, including whether a team is still involved in the various cups. Betting on cup winners is not recommended here, since nobody can really know who will win the FA Cup, for example.

With that in place, here are the predictions. A good statistics site helps when following the Premier League table.

English Premier League:

Liverpool – Top 4 (Top 6) – 6.50 (1.57)

Why Liverpool for the top four? The team needed time to adapt to Jürgen Klopp’s style, and that period was over. All the Liverpool players were fit and in very good form. They had collected 44 points, with a game in hand on fourth-placed Manchester City (51 points). The Merseysiders still faced four very difficult games before the end of the season (against Southampton, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Chelsea), but they looked capable of handling them. For anyone wary of the long odds, Liverpool to finish in the top six (1.57) looked like a gift.

Chelsea – Top 6 – 6.00

It was Chelsea’s worst season of the Roman Abramovich era, but the Blues had clearly improved a great deal since Guus Hiddink’s appointment. The Dutch manager had yet to taste defeat in the Premier League. Chelsea were just seven points behind sixth-placed Manchester United and nine behind West Ham United. They were also due to host the Hammers on the Saturday, and a win would make the odds drop dramatically.

Norwich – To Be Relegated – 1.36

The Canaries started well but were on a run of 11 games without a win, losing nine of them. They were already in the relegation zone and looked unlikely to climb out of it.

Newcastle United – NOT to be relegated – 2.25

The crucial factor here was, of course, Rafael Benítez. It took a long time for McClaren to be sacked, but it finally happened, and the Magpies’ chances were much better than they had been only a week earlier. Even though they lost their latest match, they played very well against Leicester City at the King Power Stadium. Newcastle United had also spent more money than any other club in the transfer window.

English Championship:

Cardiff City – Top 6 – 4.50 (risky)

The Championship table offered some easy calls, such as Burnley to be promoted and Bolton Wanderers to be relegated. The real test of prediction, though, was finding the team that would claim sixth place. Cardiff City had a very good chance of doing so, and the odds were attractive at 4.50. The Bluebirds had 58 points and sat seventh, just one point behind sixth-placed Sheffield Wednesday and three behind Derby County. Cardiff won their last match 1-0 against Ipswich Town, one of their main rivals, and were due to host Derby County two weeks later, with a game against Sheffield Wednesday still to come. They looked genuinely underestimated.

English League 1:

Gillingham – Top 6 – 1.25

With ten matches left, Gillingham were fourth in League One. The Gills had collected 62 points and were seven clear of seventh-placed Coventry City. They were due to host Coventry two weeks later, a match that could decide everything, yet even a defeat there would not be fatal. That margin for error is exactly what makes ante-post betting appealing: it leaves plenty of chances.

Bradford City – Top 6 – 1.80

Bradford City were three points ahead of Coventry City. The Bantams had beaten League One’s strongest side, Burton Albion, 2-0. In addition, Bradford have so-called ‘easy’ programme.

English League 2:

Plymouth Argyle – To Be Promoted – 1.72

Four teams win promotion from League Two at the end of the season: the top three go up automatically, while the teams from fourth to seventh enter the play-offs. Plymouth Argyle were third, three points ahead of fourth-placed Bristol Rovers. The Green Army had the best defence in the league (32 goals conceded in 36 games) and had won 19 matches that season. Even if they dropped to fourth, they looked the strongest of the play-off contenders.

Leyton Orient – Top 7 – 1.61

Kevin Nolan’s arrival had transformed Leyton Orient. After ten matches the positive change was obvious to everyone: the former West Ham midfielder had won six, drawn one and lost only three games in charge. Orient had also recorded an impressive 1-0 away win over second-placed Oxford in the previous round.

English National League:

Forest Green Rovers – To Be Promoted – 2.10

Rovers were second in the National League and had won more games than anyone else that season (25 of 38 matches). They were just two points behind leaders Cheltenham Town, and even if Forest Green missed out on first place, they looked well equipped for the play-offs.

Italy:

Juventus – Seria A Winners – 1.44

Juventus had proved they were the best side in Serie A. The Old Lady had been knocked out of the Champions League and could now concentrate fully on the league. They were top, three points ahead of Napoli. Gianluigi Buffon was four minutes away from a Serie A record for the longest run without conceding, having kept clean sheets in Juventus’s last ten league matches.

Roma – Top 3 – 1.30

A fairly predictable pick, but for anyone needing a 1.30 selection in an accumulator, Roma looked very reliable. The Wolves were third with nine matches left, five points clear of Fiorentina and Inter, so they could afford a defeat. Roma were due to host Inter in the next round, and a win would make their task considerably easier. They were on a run of eight consecutive Serie A wins and looked strong enough even to finish as runners-up.

Carpi – To Be Relegated – 1.40

Although the White-and-Reds had not lost for a month, their league position was uncomfortable. They were 19th and looked unlikely to overtake Palermo. Carpi faced a very difficult final three games (against Juventus, Lazio and Udinese), which were likely to prove decisive.

Germany:

Hertha Berlin – Top 4 – 1.61

Hertha Berlin produced a very good performance against Schalke 04 in the latest Bundesliga round. The Blue-Whites beat their main rivals in the race for the top four convincingly and looked hard to dislodge. Hertha relied on their home form: they had won eight of their 13 home matches that season and lost only once at the Olympiastadion.

France:

Monaco – Top 3 – 1.20

Monaco were clearly the second-best team in France. The Reds and Whites sat second and were all but certain of a Champions League place for the following season. The worst-case scenario for Monaco was third place.

Lyon – Top 3 – 1.66

Olympique Lyonnais were the only team to have beaten Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1. Lyon started the league season badly but had improved a lot recently: the Kids had won five of their last seven Ligue 1 matches, scoring 19 goals, and their remaining fixtures were not too demanding. Their main rivals, Nice, Rennes and Nantes, did not look likely to cope with the pressure until the end of the season.

Spain:

Sevilla – Top 4 – 3.50 (risky)

Sevilla were excellent at home and the poorest of travellers. They had won 13 of their 15 home matches in the Primera División that season, beating both Real Madrid and Barcelona at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, yet had not won a single away game. Why choose them, then? The gap to fourth-placed Villarreal was only five points, and Sevilla had won the head-to-head meeting 4-2. The squad had enough quality to improve its away form, which made Sevilla in the top four a risk worth considering.

Getafe – To Be Relegated – 2.25

Getafe had the hardest run-in in the Primera División. El Geta were already in the relegation zone and still had to face Villarreal, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Valencia and Deportivo. They were also in very poor form, having lost eight of their last nine league matches, so a bet on Getafe going down looked very reasonable.

Portugal:

Benfica – Champions – 1.57

After Sporting had spent many rounds at the top, Benfica beat the Lions and moved into first place. The Eagles looked good enough to win the title again. They had won 21 of 26 matches and scored 70 goals, the best tally in the league, and their most difficult remaining game was against Sporting Braga.

Holland:

PSV Eindhoven – Champions – 1.53

Just one point separated PSV Eindhoven and Ajax at the top of the Eredivisie. PSV had more quality in their squad, and if they avoided defeat against Ajax in the next round, they were likely to become champions.

Denmark:

Midtjylland – Top 3 – 1.50

The champions, Midtjylland, were third in the Danish Superliga and capable of challenging for the title, ten points behind København. No surprises were expected here, and the Wolves, who had beaten Manchester United 2-1 that season, looked a safe pick.

Russia:

CSKA Moscow – Champions – 1.50

CSKA Moscow were the favourites for the Russian title. The Army Men had collected 40 points and looked to have a very strong team, while Rostov, Lokomotiv Moscow, Krasnodar and Zenit did not look ready to become champions. With ten games left, CSKA Moscow at 1.50 looked a bet unlikely to be regretted.

Turkey:

Fenerbahce – Champions – 1.80

Fenerbahçe were just one point behind leaders Beşiktaş. All their best players were fit and the squad was deep: manager Vítor Pereira could rely on stars such as Robin van Persie, Nani, Fernandão and Raul Meireles. Fenerbahçe had also won the head-to-head match against Beşiktaş. Now out of the Europa League, the Yellow Canaries could concentrate solely on the league.

European tournaments knockout stage:

PSG vs. Manchester City – PSG to eliminate The Citizens – 1.57

Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid – Barcelona to eliminate Atletico – 1.40

Sporting Braga vs. Shakhtar – Shakhtar to eliminate Braga – 1.57

Villareal vs. Sparta Prague – Villareal to go through – 1.50

Athletic Bilbao vs. Sevilla – Sevilla to qualify – 1.61

Borussia Dortmund vs. Liverpool – Dortmund to reach the semi-finals – 1.44

These selections can be combined into sensible accumulator bets. Opinions on individual picks will naturally differ, but the case for long-term betting is a strong one. For anyone who struggles to control their gambling, sticking to a few ante-post predictions instead of betting on week-to-week matches can be a more measured approach.