"margin-top: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-bottom: 13.5pt; margin-left: 0cm; line-height: 18pt; ">In the build up to the draw for the first World Cup to be held in Africa,you can guarantee that one piece of information will be cited time and time again- that no European nation has ever won the tournament outside its homecontinent.
It's one way of looking at it - a Eurocentric way. The statementmeans just as much, if not more, if it's flipped around. Only South America haswon the World Cup away from home.
There's Brazil's win in 1958 in Sweden - had it not predated the age ofmass TV, it's probable that the '58 team would be considered a candidate forthe all time best. There's Brazil again in Japan and South Korea in 2002, andin 1994 in the USA. And there's both Brazil and Argentina triumphing in Mexico,in 1970 and 1986 respectively.
Those last two might come as a surprise to some, with theconcept (a political one, coined by the French) of Latin America confusing theissue. In cultural terms Mexico might be classed as central America, butgeographically it's in the north. The distance between Buenos Aires and MexicoCity, for example, is further than that separating London and Mumbai. No doubtabout it, 1970 and 1986 are away wins.
Does this make the South Americans the favourites to walk awaywith the title in 2010? Not necessarily. History is a good guide, butpredications need to take into account present day dynamics - and one of themost interesting is taking place in Africa.
When the South Americans carried the cup home from Asia and theConcacaf region, there were no local teams with realistic chances of winningthe competition. That might not be the case next year. Nigeria, Ghana, IvoryCoast, Cameroon - sub-Saharan Africa would seem to be well represented.
Back in 1974, when Zaire were the first sub-Saharan team to goto the World Cup, their players were not without technical ability. But theydefended as if they had never seen a cross (hence the 9-0 drubbing byYugoslavia) and they were unsure of the rules. The famous incident at a Brazilfree kick - where a defender breaks ranks and boots the ball into touch beforethe kick has been taken - seems to happen because they are perturbed by Brazilplacing men in their defensive wall, a tactic with which they were unfamiliar.It is hardly surprising, African football had been kept out of the loop.
That is emphatically no longer the case. The dreaded word'naïve' no longer applies. The big sub-Saharan powers have been to World Cupsand picked up valuable experience, and their players are well established starswith top European clubs.
It might have been thought that this development would weakenthe European national teams. With so many Africans and South Americans acrossthe continent, there are fewer opportunities for local players. On the otherhand, though, those European players who do make the grade are being exposed toconstant high standard football - and the evidence so far would seem toindicate that the European national teams are gaining more than they are losingfrom the globalisation of the continent's club game.
In Germany 2006 thevast majority of the senior players from all nations were based in Europe. Butit didn't seem to eliminate the home advantage factor. Europe supplied all foursemi-finalists - and what I saw of Euro 2008 (which was not all of it, since itcoincided with two rounds of South American World Cup qualifiers) would seem tosuggest that the standard has risen since then. The fact that next year's WorldCup is the first held in winter since 1978 should increase still furtherEurope's chances of finally coming out on top on away soil.
The South Americans, then, will face stiff competition from bothAfrica and Europe. Can they overcome it?
It would be a huge surprise if Chile, Paraguay or Uruguay wereto go all the way. The three all count on dangerous strikers. Chile's HumbertoSuazo was top scorer in South America's qualifying campaign, and tricky rightwinger Alexis Sanchez could be one of the names of the tournament. Paraguayhave the excellent Haedo Valdez, Cabanas and Santa Cruz, plus the options ofBenitez and Cardozo off the bench. Uruguay have a dangerous pair in Forlan andSuarez, big Abreu off the bench and the emerging Lodeiro to set up the play.
But there are huge question marks against all three. Can Chiledefend in the air? Can Uruguay defend against quick, mobile strikers? AreParaguay brave enough to take the initiative against strong opponents?
Realistically, all three would be happy with a place in thequarter-finals - something which does not apply to the continent's big two.
Argentina went out at the quarter-final stage in 2006. At thetime Diego Maradona described this as unacceptable, so he has set the bar highfor himself in his current job as national team coach.There is lots of work to be done before Argentina can be seen as serious titlechallengers. Serious questions - such as how will the team defend, and how willthey get the best out of Messi - have yet to be answered. But there is plentyof attacking talent to choose from, and Maradona can draw strength from thefact that the World Cup is exactly that - a cup. Italy, for example, did notwin a game for over six months before the 1982 tournament - and did not win onefor over a year afterwards. They didn't even win any of their three groupgames. But then they caught fire and in four games beat the best the worldcould put in front of them and went home as champions. Providing their defenceis tight enough, Argentina are capable of something similar.
But they would seem to be some distance behind Brazil. Built onthe security of keeper Julio Cesar and centre back Lucio, superb on thecounter-attack and dangerous from set-pieces, sure of what they are doing andin excellent form, Brazil are looking ominous.
Normally when they are favourites Brazil can become their ownworst enemy. It is unlikely to happen this time. The example of Germany 2006, with the showbizexcesses of training sessions open to the public, is still fresh in the mind.And coach Dunga can be counted on to banish complacency.
But they can be stifled - as shown by four goalless draws infront of their own fans in qualification. They are probably overdue a difficultgroup. If they are drawn against solid defensive teams this Friday then theirbid for the title will come under early examination in South Africa next June.
Tim Vickery | 15:42 UK time, Monday, 30November 2009
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/timvickery/2009/11/can_history_be_made_in_the_sou.html
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