Hi folks,
Apologies for the recent dearth of blogging activity from yours truly; PhD commitments have kept me busy for most of the past twelve months, while house hunting has been a recent hassle. However, the start of the European football season stops for no man, and with the Ligue Un & Bundesliga kick-offs a mere seven days, now seems an apt time to begin the 2009/10 mini-series of Euro league previews.
As is traditional, we start with France, where there was finally a new Ligue Un champion in the shape of Laurent Blanc’s Bordeaux, after seven long years of Lyonnais hegemony. The reigning champions may have lost key central defender Souleymane Diawara (yes, Charlton fans, you read that last bit right) to one of their principal title rivals, Marseille, but have kept hold of the bulk of the squad that enabled them to win the title, with Marouane Chamakh thus far opting to stay with the Girondins in the face of interest from the Premier League, and, most crucially, Yoann Gourcuff (the 191st new Zidane, albeit one that actually justifies the hype this time, with even Zizou himself christening Gourcuff as his successor) signing permanently despite strong interest from many of Europe’s elite clubs. Champions League commitments are bound to prove more of a distraction to Bordeaux than the UEFA Cup did last season, but Bordeaux should enter the new season as title favourites, despite Blanc’s protestations to the contrary.
The most likely side to threaten the champion’s defence of their title (and I know I say this every year) should be Marseille. Their title challenge last season was arguably undone by allowing boardroom politics (particularly concerning the future of then-coach Eric Gerets) to affect on-pitch performances; since then, they have recruited well, both in terms of Gerets’ successor as manager (the very underrated Didier Deschamps, who has been curiously underused since leaving Juventus in 2007, despite guiding the Old Lady back to Serie A at the first time of asking, and achieving success during a previous stint at Monaco) and in terms of transfers, most notably bringing in Cameroonian defensive midfielder Stéphane M’Bia and the star of Porto’s title-winning campaign last season, the excellent Argentine attacking midfielder Lucho Gonzalez. Last season’s January transfer window signing, Brandão, will get further opportunity to build on the positive initial impression he made last season. If Deschamps can coax the best out of the prodigiously talented, but equally temperamental, Hatem Ben Arfa (which is particuarly important in the light of Karim Ziani’s move to Wolfsburg), then Marseille could potentially end their long title drought. My suspicion, though, is that further defensive recruits may be needed in order for them to overhaul Bordeaux. As for Lyon themselves, the impact of the departures of recent talismanic figures Karim Benzema and Juninho has probably been exaggerated; the decline of Juninho over the last couple of seasons was demonstrably confirmed by his decision to take up Al-Gharafa’s offer of a lucrative retirement in Qatar, while Benzema only produced in patches for Lyon, possibly due to the amorous gazes he was attracting from Manchester United, Barcelona and Real Madrid (ultimately resulting in him becoming one of the latest additions to the Galacticos: Part Deux project). It’s also fair to say that Lyon have dealt well in the transfer market: Aly Cissokho should prove a step up on the disappointing Fabio Grosso at left-back, Lisandro López should certainly match Benzema’s goal haul (if not quite possessing Benzema’s excellent all-round game), Bafétimbi Gomis is a better forward than last season’s struggles at Saint-Étienne suggest, and Jean-Michel Aulas has almost certainly pulled off the transfer coup of the French off-season (if you exclude Gourcuff’s permanent move to Bordeaux) in bringing supremely gifted playmaker Michel Bastos to the club from Lille. In spite of all this, though, Lyon still give the impression of being a club in decline; Claude Puel enjoyed what can kindly be described as an underwhelming first season on the Lyon bench, and the decision by Aulas to retain him despite the turgid brand of football played by his Lyon side is bound to alarm some of the Lyon supporters. Meanwhile, the squad is still populated by many of the same players who massively underachieved last season, while the combustible nature of Aulas (not a man known for patiently standing by his coaches; remember, this is a man who fired Alain Perrin despite him winning the double) could yet derail any title push Les Gones may wish to mount. Champions League qualification, given the quality of the rest of the field, should be a given, but the Ligue Un crown should also be beyond their reach.
In terms of the rest of the European places, Paris Saint-Germain still seem to have a worrying addiction to veteran former France internationals, with Grégory Coupet joining fellow thirty-somethings Claude Makélélé and Ludovic Giuly at the Parc des Princes. Admittedly, though, the sale of Mickaël Landreau to Lille should be no great loss to the Parisiens, while the capture of Franco-Turkish hotshot Mevlut Erding looks particularly astute. While PSG are unlikely to be much of a threat for the Champions League positions, they should be a shoo-in for a Europa League spot. Meanwhile, Toulouse’s hopes of European qualification depend to a large extent on whether they can retain star striker André-Pierre Gignac; fail to do so, and it’s unlikely that Toulouse will possess sufficient goal threat to trouble the European places. Saint-Étienne are unlikely to underperform as staggeringly as they did last season, but the loss of Gomis to hated local rivals Lyon is likely to put paid to any European aspirations, while the mooted transfer of Blaise Matuidi to Arsenal is likely to prove similarly destructive if it goes through. The prospects of Lille should be much rosier than those of Les Verts for 2009/10, despite the loss of Michel Bastos; both coach Rudi Garcia and Belgian prodigy Eden Hazard have been retained for next season, while the arrivals of Gervinho (Le Mans) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Milan) should improve an already dangerous side. Rennes may also be well placed to usurp Toulouse’s European slot should Gignac leave; the arrival of Alexander Tettey from Rosenborg should go some way to filling the Stéphane M’Bia-shaped hole in the centre of the Rennes midfield, while the newly-acquired Guinean international forward Ismaël Bangoura could form an exciting attacking partnership with young French international Jimmy Briand.
After the surprise struggles of the likes of PSG, Toulouse, and Saint-Étienne in recent seasons (not to mention Lens’ surprise relegation in 2008 and Nantes’ recent bout of yo-yoing), the relegation battle this season is likely to have a more familiar feel to it than in previous campaigns. While the recent rise of Boulogne through the French football rankings has been impressive, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a swift return to Ligue Deux, given that the little Northern club doesn’t have the resources to improve what is effectively a second-tier squad. Sochaux were fortunate to avoid the drop last season and, with Mevlut Erding and veteran midfield stalwart Romain Pitau gone, are likely to go join Boulogne in France’s second division. Lens and Montpellier, the two clubs promoted alongside Boulogne, should have enough to avoid relegation; Montpellier, in particular, have recruited well in the transfer market, bringing in the experienced Pitau and Saint-Étienne forward Geoffrey Dernis. Lorient’s battling qualities, and the experience of coach Christian Gourcuff, should also enable them to avoid the drop. Difficult campaigns await both Grenoble and Le Mans, however; Grenoble faded badly in the second half of the 2008/09 season after a bright start and will also lack the element of surprise they possessed last year, while the summer purchases (two members of Saint-Étienne’s underachieving side of last season, Daisuke Matsui and Jody Viviani, and the rusty, underused Danijel Ljuboja being the key ones) don’t exactly inspire confidence. Le Mans, meanwhile, have again lost their best players this summer, most notably Yoann Pelé (Toulouse) and Gervinho (Lille), and one wonders how long they can continue to do so before succumbing to relegation. My tip as the third relegated side, however, would be Valenciennes, with the loss of coach Antoine Kombouaré to PSG likely to be fatal for a workmanlike side that has arguably overachieved for the past two seasons.
Well, that’s all for now, but it wouldn’t be like your humble scribe not to wheel out his predictions for the 2009/10 season (it should at least give you something to laugh at once the season’s over), so here they are:
• Champions: Bordeaux (the permanent signing of Gourcuff should again give Bordeaux the creative edge over their rivals, while Blanc’s signing of a contract extension towards the end of last season was also welcome news; in any case, Marseille and Lyon have problems of their own).
• 2nd place (and automatic Champions League qualification): Marseille (should again run Bordeaux close, but Souleymane Diawara alone will not be enough to stabilise the defence).
• 3rd place (and Champions League qualifiers slot): Lyon (too strong to be usurped by the rest of the field, but not strong enough to threaten either Bordeaux or Marseille).
• Europa League slots: Paris Saint-Germain, Lille, Toulouse (if Gignac stays)/Rennes (if Gignac leaves).
• Relegation places: Valenciennes, Sochaux, Boulogne (in descending order).